BUCKING HISTORY
The American men have their work cut out; only 9 teams that lost their Olympic openers have advanced to the knockout round
U.S. coach Marko Mitrovic needs to figure out things in a hurry. (Luisa Gonzalez/Reuters via USA TODAY Sports)
By Michael Lewis
How important is winning your first game in an Olympics? If a men's team plans on advancing to the next round, it is virtually a must.
Which makes the U.S.'s hopes of getting out of Group A intact much difficult.
The Americans lost their opener to host France on Wednesday, 3-0. They are at the bottom of the group with zero points and a minus three goal differential.
That is a poor start and could lead to a devastating finish and failure to reach the knockout round.
Since group play was instituted for the first round in 1952, countries that win their first match have moved onto the next round 89 percent of the time. Teams that have lost their opening games have gotten out of the first round only eight percent of the time. And if a team draws, it has more than a fighting chance - 50 percent of staying alive for a medal.
Only nine countries have lost their openers but managed to advance anyway. The exceptions: Argentina (1960), Egypt (1984), Australia (1992), Ghana (1996), Brazil (1996), Ivory Coast (2008), Belgium (2008), Egypt (2012) and Korea Republic (2020).
Interesting note: Brazil is the only team to lose its opening match but went on to win a medal, a bronze, in 1996. Australia reached the medal round in 1992, losing to Ghana in the bronze-medal encounter. Belgium also reached the medal round, losing to Brazil in the third-place match.
On the flip side, eight countries won their first game, but did not advance.
They include Poland (1960), which defeated Tunisia, 6-1; the USA (1984), which beat Costa Rica, 3-0; South Korea (1996), which downed Ghana, 1-0; Japan (1996), which bested Brazil, 1-0; the U.S. (2008) downed Japan, 1-0; Uruguay (2012) edged United Arab Emirates, 2-1; and Romania (2020), which beat Honduras, 1-0, and Australia (2020), which bested Argentina, 2-0.
So, there is some light, but not much.
I'm not saying the U.S. is doomed, but the Americans need to find a way to dig out of their hole. They will have an opportunity to do so against New Zealand on Saturday, July 27, and if they're still alive, against Guinea on Tuesday, July 30.